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Market Leader Boards
The Market Leader Boards give the interim positions for each market and
are updated every hour on the hour. Note that the interim leader is not
necessarily the final leader because actual external data and judging
determines the winner and the interim leaders are estimated based only
on the players predictions. Thus, the leader boards are in no way meant
to accurately forecast who might win, but instead serve as a fun way to
keep track of how players are judging events. See below for a general
idea of how interim leaders are calculated.
The market leader boards should be approached with a grain of salt
until a market closes and a real winner is declared.
Calculation of Interim Leader for Competitive Forecasts
The interim leader for a competitive forecast market is determined
by assuming the current aggregate average prediction at the time
the interim leader is calculated is the best estimate of the winning
value of the market. Note that the actual winning value of that
market is determined by actual external data and judging, not the
aggregate average value of players predictions, so the interim
leader is not necessarily indicative of the real market winner.
Calculation of Interim Leader for Idea Markets.
The interim leader for an idea market is determined by assuming
that the ideas players have assigned green tokens are more likely
to be better than ideas assigned red tokens.
More specifically, the
interim leader is the player with the most points, where points for
each player are calculated by weighting that players tokens invested
for each idea (green minus red) by all the players tokens invested
for that idea (proportion of green proportion of red), summed over
all the ideas in that market and then adding any points the player
has acquired in that market. Note that the actual winning idea(s)
in the market are determined by actual external data and judging,
not the distribution of green tokens compared to red tokens, so
the interim leader is not necessarily indicative of the real
market winner.
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